2nd/10_Wiki/Topics/AI_and_ML/초인플레이션(Hyperinflation).md

---
id: wiki-2026-0508-초인플레이션-hyperinflation
title: 초인플레이션(Hyperinflation)
category: 10_Wiki/Topics
status: verified
canonical_id: self
aliases: [Hyperinflation, 초인플레이션, Game Economy Inflation]
duplicate_of: none
source_trust_level: A
confidence_score: 0.92
verification_status: applied
tags: [game-economy, mmorpg, monetization, telemetry]
raw_sources: []
last_reinforced: 2026-05-10
github_commit: pending
tech_stack:
  language: typescript
  framework: Telemetry/Analytics
---

# 초인플레이션 (Hyperinflation)

## 매 한 줄
> **"매 currency supply > sink capacity 의 누적 결과"**. game economy 에서 매 closed loop 가 leak 되면 매 가격이 exponential 로 증가. EVE Online, Diablo 2, Path of Exile 의 매 historic crisis. 2026 의 매 design 답: 매 sink scaling + telemetry-driven faucet throttle + seasonal reset.

## 매 핵심

### 매 정의
- **Inflation rate**: 매 (M/V) 증가율 — 매 monetary supply / velocity
- **Hyperinflation threshold**: 매 50%+ price increase per month (Cagan 정의)
- **Faucet**: 매 currency 발생 source (mob drop, quest reward)
- **Sink**: 매 currency 소멸 destination (repair, tax, fee)
- **Velocity**: 매 currency 의 unit time per transaction

### 매 hyperinflation 원인
- **Faucet > Sink imbalance**: 매 net positive money creation
- **Bot farming**: 매 24/7 currency creation, real-money trading
- **Item duplication exploit**: 매 supply spike
- **Player-base growth**: 매 new player 의 income 이 sink 보다 빠름
- **Power creep**: 매 high-tier item price 가 inflate, 매 wealth concentration

### 매 응용
1. Live-ops dashboard — 매 inflation rate alarm.
2. Sink design — 매 luxury sink + repair sink 조합.
3. Seasonal reset (Diablo / PoE) — 매 economy 의 reset valve.

## 💻 패턴

### Inflation index (CPI-like)
```typescript
type PriceSnapshot = { itemId: string; medianPrice: number; ts: number }

class InflationIndex {
  private basket: string[]   // 매 representative items
  private base: Map<string, number> = new Map()

  init(snapshots: PriceSnapshot[]) {
    for (const s of snapshots) if (this.basket.includes(s.itemId)) {
      this.base.set(s.itemId, s.medianPrice)
    }
  }

  current(snapshots: PriceSnapshot[]): number {
    let ratioSum = 0, n = 0
    for (const s of snapshots) {
      const b = this.base.get(s.itemId)
      if (b) { ratioSum += s.medianPrice / b; n++ }
    }
    return n > 0 ? ratioSum / n : 1
  }

  monthlyRate(history: number[]): number {
    if (history.length < 30) return 0
    return history[history.length - 1] / history[history.length - 30] - 1
  }
}
```

### Faucet/sink balance
```typescript
type EconFlow = { faucet: number; sink: number; ts: number }

function netFlow(flows: EconFlow[], windowMs: number): number {
  const cutoff = Date.now() - windowMs
  const recent = flows.filter(f => f.ts > cutoff)
  return recent.reduce((s, f) => s + f.faucet - f.sink, 0)
}

function isInflating(flows: EconFlow[]): boolean {
  return netFlow(flows, 24 * 3600 * 1000) > 0
}
```

### Adaptive sink (repair scaling)
```typescript
function repairCost(item: Item, econ: EconState): number {
  const base = item.value * 0.05
  // 매 inflation index 와 비례
  const adjusted = base * econ.inflationIndex
  // 매 high-tier 일수록 누진세
  const progressive = item.tier > 5 ? adjusted * 1.5 : adjusted
  return Math.round(progressive)
}
```

### Bot detection (currency velocity)
```typescript
function suspiciousAccount(account: Account): boolean {
  const tx = account.transactions
  const earnRate = tx.filter(t => t.type === "earn").length / 3600 // per hour
  const sleepGap = maxGapMs(tx) // longest no-tx gap
  // 매 24/7 high earn + no sleep gap = bot
  return earnRate > 200 && sleepGap < 6 * 3600 * 1000
}
```

### Luxury sink design
```typescript
type LuxurySink = {
  id: string
  cost: number
  effect: "cosmetic" | "buff" | "social"
  permanent: boolean
}

const LUXURY: LuxurySink[] = [
  { id: "guild_castle_lv2", cost: 50_000_000, effect: "social", permanent: true },
  { id: "name_color", cost: 5_000_000, effect: "cosmetic", permanent: false },
  { id: "global_announce", cost: 1_000_000, effect: "social", permanent: false },
]

// 매 wealth-concentration drain
function balancedLuxury(econ: EconState): LuxurySink[] {
  const target = econ.top1PctReserve * 0.05
  return LUXURY.map(l => ({ ...l, cost: Math.round(l.cost * econ.inflationIndex) }))
}
```

### Seasonal reset
```typescript
async function startNewSeason(seasonId: string) {
  await archiveCharacters("legacy")
  // 매 new season 은 currency 0, items 0
  await createFreshLeague(seasonId)
  // 매 legacy economy 는 sink 처리 (item museum, retirement bonus)
  await migrateToLegacy("legacy", { incomeMultiplier: 0.0, allowTrade: false })
}
```

### Real-time inflation alert
```typescript
function monitorInflation(idx: InflationIndex, history: number[]) {
  const monthly = idx.monthlyRate(history)
  if (monthly > 0.5) alert("HYPERINFLATION", { rate: monthly })
  else if (monthly > 0.2) alert("INFLATION_HIGH", { rate: monthly })
  else if (monthly < -0.1) alert("DEFLATION", { rate: monthly })
}
```

## 매 결정 기준
| 인플레이션 상태 | Action |
|---|---|
| < 5% / month | Healthy, no action |
| 5-20% / month | 매 sink boost (repair, tax) |
| 20-50% / month | 매 faucet throttle (drop nerf) + new sink |
| > 50% / month (hyper) | 매 emergency sink + seasonal reset 검토 |
| Deflation (< 0%) | 매 sink reduction, faucet boost |

**기본값**: weekly inflation index check + adaptive repair cost + bi-annual season reset.

## 🔗 Graph
- 부모: [[Hyperinflation-in-Closed-Loop-Systems]]
- 변형: [[가차(Gacha)]] · [[부분_유료화(Free-to-Play)]]
- 응용: [[EVE_온라인(EVE_Online)]] · [[디아블로_2(Diablo_II)]] · [[알비온_온라인(Albion_Online)]]
- Adjacent: [[Telemetry_Balancing]] · [[배수구(Sinks)]] · [[탭과_싱크(Taps_and_Sinks)]]

## 🤖 LLM 활용
**언제**: economy crisis post-mortem, sink mechanic ideation, patch note 작성.
**언제 X**: 매 real-time price aggregation — 매 SQL/Streaming 으로.

## ❌ 안티패턴
- **Static sink**: 매 fixed cost — 매 inflation 시 무력화.
- **Faucet-only nerf**: sink 안 늘리고 drop 만 줄임 — 매 player frustration spike.
- **No bot detection**: 매 24/7 farmer 방치 — 매 supply 폭발.
- **No seasonal valve**: 매 perpetual server 의 매 wealth concentration.
- **Top-down price control**: 매 NPC 가격 freeze → black market 으로 도피.

## 🧪 검증 / 중복
- Verified (CCP EVE Monthly Economic Report, GGG PoE league design talks, Cagan 1956).
- 신뢰도 A.
- 관련 canonical: [[Hyperinflation-in-Closed-Loop-Systems]] (general systems 관점).

## 🕓 Changelog
| 날짜 | 변경 |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Phase 1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Manual cleanup — game economy hyperinflation + sink design |