2nd/10_Wiki/Topics/Architecture/Machinations.md

---
id: wiki-2026-0508-machinations
title: Machinations
category: 10_Wiki/Topics
status: verified
canonical_id: self
aliases: [Machinations Diagram, Game Economy Modeling]
duplicate_of: none
source_trust_level: A
confidence_score: 0.9
verification_status: applied
tags: [game-design, economy-modeling, simulation, balancing]
raw_sources: []
last_reinforced: 2026-05-10
github_commit: pending
tech_stack:
  language: typescript
  framework: machinations
---

# Machinations

## 매 한 줄
> **"매 game economy 의 visual flow simulation"**. Joris Dormans 의 PhD work (2009→) — node + connection 의 graph 로 매 resource flow, feedback loop, random event 를 simulate. 2026 의 Machinations.io SaaS + Live integration 으로 매 Unity/Unreal economy 를 매 design-time 에 balance 가능. F2P, gacha, idle 게임의 매 standard tool.

## 매 핵심

### 매 핵심 nodes
- **Pool**: resource 저장 (gold, energy, XP).
- **Source**: resource 생성.
- **Drain**: resource 소비.
- **Converter**: resource 변환 (예: 5 wood → 1 plank).
- **Trader**: bidirectional exchange.
- **Gate**: 매 conditional flow router.
- **End condition**: simulation 종료 trigger.

### 매 connection types
- **Resource connection**: rate (per tick) + label.
- **State connection**: source pool 의 value 가 매 다른 node 의 rate modifier.
- **Trigger**: event-based fire.
- **Activator**: enable/disable based on threshold.

### 매 simulation modes
- **Deterministic**: fixed rates → predictable.
- **Stochastic**: random with distribution → Monte Carlo.
- **Interactive**: player input 의 click on Source/Drain.

### 매 응용
1. F2P economy balancing (gacha rates, soft/hard currency).
2. Idle game progression curves.
3. RTS resource gathering loop.
4. Battle-pass / season pass tuning.
5. Player retention model (LTV simulation).
6. Educational economic modeling (supply/demand).

## 💻 패턴

### 1. Idle game core loop (Machinations-style pseudo)
```
[Source: idle] --1/sec--> [Pool: Gold]
[Pool: Gold] --click 10/click--> [Drain: Spend]
[Pool: Gold] --on >= 100--> [Converter: BuyUpgrade]
[Converter] --1--> [Pool: Multiplier]
[Pool: Multiplier] -- state * 0.5 --> [Source: idle].rate
# Feedback loop: more multiplier → faster gold → more upgrades
```

### 2. JS simulation harness (build your own)
```typescript
type Pool = { name: string; value: number };
type Edge = {
  from: string;
  to: string;
  rate: (state: Record<string, number>) => number;
};

class Simulator {
  pools: Pool[] = [];
  edges: Edge[] = [];
  tick = 0;

  step() {
    const state = Object.fromEntries(this.pools.map(p => [p.name, p.value]));
    const deltas: Record<string, number> = {};
    for (const e of this.edges) {
      const r = e.rate(state);
      deltas[e.from] = (deltas[e.from] ?? 0) - r;
      deltas[e.to]   = (deltas[e.to]   ?? 0) + r;
    }
    for (const p of this.pools) p.value = Math.max(0, p.value + (deltas[p.name] ?? 0));
    this.tick++;
  }
}

const sim = new Simulator();
sim.pools = [{ name: "gold", value: 0 }, { name: "mult", value: 1 }];
sim.edges = [
  { from: "_source", to: "gold", rate: s => 1 * s.mult },
  { from: "gold", to: "mult", rate: s => s.gold >= 100 ? 100 : 0 }, // buy upgrade
];
```

### 3. Monte Carlo balance test
```typescript
function runMontecarlo(n = 1000) {
  const completionTimes: number[] = [];
  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
    const sim = buildEconomy({ seed: i });
    while (!sim.done && sim.tick < 100_000) sim.step();
    completionTimes.push(sim.tick);
  }
  completionTimes.sort((a, b) => a - b);
  return {
    p50: completionTimes[Math.floor(n * 0.5)],
    p95: completionTimes[Math.floor(n * 0.95)],
    p99: completionTimes[Math.floor(n * 0.99)],
  };
}
// Use to validate "median player reaches L20 in ~2 hours".
```

### 4. Gacha drop rate modeling
```typescript
type Rarity = "common" | "rare" | "sr" | "ssr";
const rates: Record<Rarity, number> = {
  common: 0.79,
  rare: 0.17,
  sr: 0.035,
  ssr: 0.005,  // 0.5%
};

function pull(): Rarity {
  const r = Math.random();
  let acc = 0;
  for (const [k, p] of Object.entries(rates) as [Rarity, number][]) {
    acc += p;
    if (r < acc) return k;
  }
  return "common";
}

function pityCounter() {
  let pulls = 0;
  return () => {
    pulls++;
    if (pulls >= 90) { pulls = 0; return "ssr" as Rarity; }
    return pull();
  };
}
// Simulate 10k players → expected SSR per player + variance.
```

### 5. Feedback loop classification
```
Positive feedback: A → ... → A+ (rich-get-richer, snowball)
Negative feedback: A → ... → A- (rubber-banding, balance)
Multiplayer dynamics: Mario Kart blue shell (negative for leader)
```

```typescript
// Detect runaway: if d(pool)/dt grows super-linearly → rebalance
function detectRunaway(history: number[]): boolean {
  const ratios = history.slice(1).map((v, i) => v / Math.max(history[i], 1));
  return ratios.slice(-10).every(r => r > 1.1);  // 10% growth/tick sustained
}
```

### 6. Progression pacing curve
```typescript
// Target: L = sqrt(XP / 50) → quadratic XP curve
function xpForLevel(L: number) { return 50 * L * L; }

// Sim: drop rate × kill rate × time = level after T
function levelAtTime(t: number, xpPerSec = 2) {
  const totalXP = xpPerSec * t;
  return Math.floor(Math.sqrt(totalXP / 50));
}
// Plot levelAtTime over 0..7200 (2h) and check pacing.
```

### 7. Machinations.io live data hook (2026)
```typescript
// Fetch live economy params from Machinations.io
// (designers tune in browser; game pulls latest)
async function fetchEconomyConfig(diagramId: string) {
  const r = await fetch(`https://api.machinations.io/v2/diagrams/${diagramId}/config`, {
    headers: { Authorization: `Bearer ${process.env.MACH_TOKEN}` },
  });
  return r.json();  // { goldPerSec, ssRate, levelCurve, ... }
}
// Update server tunables without redeploy.
```

## 매 결정 기준
| 상황 | Approach |
|---|---|
| F2P economy balance | Machinations.io diagram + Monte Carlo. |
| Idle / incremental | Custom JS simulator (lighter). |
| MMO economy stability | Agent-based simulation (more nodes). |
| Single-player RPG progression | Spreadsheet + simple sim. |
| Real-time multiplayer balance | Live telemetry + A/B + small Machinations diagram. |
| PVP balance (rock-paper-scissors) | Game theory tool, not Machinations. |

**기본값**: 매 currency-flow heavy game 의 design phase 에 매 Machinations diagram. Pure combat balance 는 매 다른 tool.

## 🔗 Graph
- 부모: [[Game Design]]
- Adjacent: [[Monte Carlo Simulation]] · [[Feedback Loops]]

## 🤖 LLM 활용
**언제**: economy diagram review, drop rate sanity check, progression curve drafting, feedback loop identification.
**언제 X**: 매 combat balance, 매 narrative pacing, 매 art/UX concerns.

## ❌ 안티패턴
- **Diagram only, no simulation**: 매 visual 만 그리고 매 numeric Monte Carlo 의 X. 매 deterministic only 는 stochastic player 의 outlier 을 miss.
- **Over-detailed model**: 매 50+ nodes — designer 가 매 mental model 잃음. 매 module 단위 분리.
- **Static rates in live game**: 매 Machinations 에서 balanced 후 hardcode. 매 LiveOps tunable 로 expose.
- **Ignoring positive feedback**: 매 snowball loop 의 매 rich-get-richer — 매 churn driver.
- **Single-seed simulation**: 매 1 run 으로 결정 — 매 N=1000+ Monte Carlo 필수.

## 🧪 검증 / 중복
- Verified (Dormans, *Engineering Emergence: Applied Theory of Game Design* PhD thesis 2012, Machinations.io docs).
- 신뢰도 A.

## 🕓 Changelog
| 날짜 | 변경 |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Phase 1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Manual cleanup — Machinations primitives + Monte Carlo + gacha/idle pattern |