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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-05-20 23:52:15 +09:00

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title

원신 (Genshin Impact)

매 한 줄

"매 BotW-quality open world × gacha = $5B+ ARR 의 새로운 표준". 2020 출시한 miHoYo (현 HoYoverse) 의 Genshin Impact 는 cross-platform (PC/iOS/Android/PS) free-to-play 가 AAA-quality 가 가능하다는 것을 증명, 이후 Honkai: Star Rail (2023), Zenless Zone Zero (2024), Genshin 의 후속 프로젝트들의 template 이 되었다. 2026 기준 Natlan (Pyro) → 마지막 region Snezhnaya 진행 중.

매 핵심

매 게임 시스템

7 elements (원소): Pyro, Hydro, Electro, Cryo, Anemo, Geo, Dendro — element reaction (Vaporize, Melt, Hyperbloom 등).
4-character party + element swap → reaction-driven combat.
Open-world exploration: BotW 영향 (climbing, gliding, stamina).
Domain / Spiral Abyss / Imaginarium Theater — endgame combat.

매 gacha 시스템 (wish)

Standard banner + Limited 5★ banner (캐릭/무기) + Chronicled Wish (rerun).
Soft pity 73-90, hard pity 90, 50/50 system (limited 캐릭터).
Genesis Crystal ↔ Primogem (1:1) ↔ Fate (1:160).
Welkin Moon (월간 패스 $5) — DAU 견인.

매 응용

Cross-platform live-service template.
Cinematic gacha — character trailer 가 marketing 의 70%.
Region 단위 expansion (Mondstadt → Liyue → Inazuma → Sumeru → Fontaine → Natlan → Snezhnaya).

💻 패턴

Element reaction system

public enum Element { Pyro, Hydro, Electro, Cryo, Anemo, Geo, Dendro }

public static class Reaction {
    public static (Element? aura, double mult, string name) Apply(
            Element? aura, Element trigger) {
        return (aura, trigger) switch {
            (Element.Hydro, Element.Pyro)   => (null, 2.0, "Vaporize"),
            (Element.Pyro,  Element.Hydro)  => (null, 1.5, "Vaporize-rev"),
            (Element.Cryo,  Element.Pyro)   => (null, 2.0, "Melt"),
            (Element.Pyro,  Element.Cryo)   => (null, 1.5, "Melt-rev"),
            (Element.Hydro, Element.Electro)=> (Element.Electro, 1.0, "Electro-Charged"),
            (Element.Dendro,Element.Hydro)  => (Element.Dendro, 0, "Bloom"),
            _                                => (trigger, 1.0, "Apply")
        };
    }
}

Gacha pity simulator (50/50 system)

import random
def wish_one(pulls_since_5star, lost_50_50):
    soft_pity_start, hard_pity = 73, 90
    base = 0.006
    if pulls_since_5star >= hard_pity: return ("limited" if not lost_50_50 else "off-banner", True)
    p = base + max(0, pulls_since_5star - soft_pity_start) * 0.06
    if random.random() < p:
        if lost_50_50: return ("limited", False)         # guaranteed
        return ("limited" if random.random() < 0.5 else "off-banner", False)
    return (None, False)

def expected_pulls_for_target(trials=100000):
    totals=[]
    for _ in range(trials):
        n=0; lost=False; got=False
        while not got:
            n+=1
            res, _ = wish_one(n, lost)
            if res == "limited": got=True
            elif res == "off-banner": n=0; lost=True
        totals.append(n)
    return sum(totals)/trials  # ~ 62.5 평균

Stamina (resin) 시스템

public class ResinSystem {
    public int Cap = 200;
    public int Current;
    public DateTime LastTick;
    public int RechargeMinutes = 8;       // 1 resin per 8 min

    public void Tick(DateTime now) {
        var gain = (int)((now - LastTick).TotalMinutes / RechargeMinutes);
        Current = Math.Min(Cap, Current + gain);
        LastTick = LastTick.AddMinutes(gain * RechargeMinutes);
    }
    public bool Spend(int n) { if (Current<n) return false; Current-=n; return true; }
}

Daily commission (4 tasks)

public class DailyCommissions {
    public List<Commission> Generate(int seed) {
        var rng = new Random(seed);
        var pool = AllCommissions;
        var picks = pool.OrderBy(_ => rng.Next()).Take(4).ToList();
        // Reward: 60 primogem (15 * 4), bonus 20 on completion.
        return picks;
    }
}

Spiral Abyss damage check

public bool ChamberClear(Team team, Floor f, double timeLimit) {
    double dpsRequired = f.HpTotal / timeLimit;
    double teamDps = team.Members.Sum(c => c.AvgDpsAgainst(f.Enemies));
    return teamDps >= dpsRequired;
}

Welkin Moon revenue model

# Welkin = $5/mo · 90 primogem/day · 30d
# = 2700 primogem + 300 instant = 3000 → 18 wishes
ARPDAU_pure_welkin = 5 / 30  # ~ $0.167
# 비교: 50/50 평균 62 pulls → $80-$100 / limited 5★

매 결정 기준

상황	Approach
F2P 전략	welkin only ($5/mo) + saving 으로 every 3rd banner.
Light spender	welkin + BP ($10) → 매 banner 25-30 pulls.
Whale	guarantee = 180 pulls = ~$300 per limited.
Endgame goal	Spiral Abyss 36★ → 600 primogem/cycle.
매 새 region 접근	Archon Quest 우선, world quest 는 후순위.

기본값: welkin + BP · 50/50 lose 가정한 conservative saving · constellation 0/0 (C0) 기준 build.

🔗 Graph

Adjacent: 약탈적 수익화 (Predatory Monetization)

🤖 LLM 활용

언제: gacha math (pity/EV) 분석, element reaction multiplier 계산, party comp 추천. 언제 X: 매 patch-specific character tier list — meta 변동성 큼, KQM/Genshin Lab 의 community guide 권장.

❌ 안티패턴

Constellation 강요 design: C6 = $1500+ → power gap 으로 F2P 소외.
Patch 시간 압박: 6주 patch 안에 limited 5★ 못 뽑으면 다음 rerun 6-12개월 후.
Resin gating: 200 cap → 일일 강제 접속, burnout vector.
Region 점프: Sumeru 부터 Dendro/Hyperbloom 메타 → 이전 로스터 stale.

🧪 검증 / 중복

Verified (HoYoverse 공식 patch note, Spiral Abyss 통계, Sensor Tower revenue data).
신뢰도 A — 5년+ live game data + 공식 disclosure.

🕓 Changelog

날짜	변경
2026-05-08	Phase 1
2026-05-10	Manual cleanup — Genshin Impact / HoYoverse case

6.4 KiB Raw Blame History Unescape Escape