2nd/10_Wiki/Topics/Game_Design/Economic-Analysis.md

id, title, category, status, canonical_id, aliases, duplicate_of, source_trust_level, confidence_score, verification_status, tags, raw_sources, last_reinforced, github_commit, tech_stack

id	title	category	status	canonical_id	aliases	duplicate_of	source_trust_level	confidence_score	verification_status	tags	raw_sources	last_reinforced	github_commit	tech_stack
wiki-2026-0508-economic-analysis	Economic Analysis	10_Wiki/Topics	verified	self	Game Economy Audit Virtual Economy Diagnostics Sink-Faucet Analysis	none	A	0.9	applied	game-design economy sink-faucet virtual-currency		2026-05-10	pending	language framework economy-modeling virtual-economy

Economic Analysis

매 한 줄

"매 game economy 는 매 closed system 의 매 thermodynamics — 매 source 와 매 sink 가 매 균형되어야 한다". 매 Economic Analysis 는 매 virtual economy 의 매 health 를 매 측정 (매 inflation rate, 매 currency velocity, 매 wealth distribution, 매 sink/faucet ratio). 매 EVE Online (Eyjólfur Guðmundsson, 2007-2014 매 lead economist) 매 establishes 매 modern field. 매 2026 — 매 Web3 game (Axie, Pixels) 의 매 inflation crash 매 lessons.

매 핵심

매 Source (Faucet)

• 매 mob drop, 매 quest reward, 매 crafting output, 매 daily login.
• 매 player labor → currency 의 매 conversion 율.

매 Sink (Drain)

• 매 repair cost, 매 fast travel fee, 매 cosmetic purchase, 매 consumable.
• 매 transaction tax, 매 destruction-on-loss (매 EVE PvP).

매 Health Metrics

• Inflation rate: 매 month-over-month CPI (basket of goods).
• Velocity: 매 transaction count / money supply.
• Gini coefficient: 매 wealth concentration (0=equal, 1=one player).
• Sink/Faucet ratio: 매 ideally ≈ 1.0 매 long-run.

매 응용

1. EVE Online — Quarterly Economic Report (QER) since 2007.
2. WoW Token (2015) — 매 explicit gold sink + USD bridge.
3. Path of Exile Currency (no gold) — 매 barter w/ orbs.
4. Axie Infinity (2021 crash) — 매 SLP hyperinflation 의 매 case study.

💻 패턴

Pattern 1: Faucet Audit

from collections import defaultdict
from datetime import date

def audit_faucets(transactions, period_days: int = 30):
    sources = defaultdict(float)
    for tx in transactions:
        if tx.type == 'creation':  # currency materialized
            sources[tx.source_tag] += tx.amount
    total = sum(sources.values())
    return {
        tag: {'amount': amt, 'pct': amt / total}
        for tag, amt in sorted(sources.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1])
    }
# Output: { "mob_drop": 45%, "quest": 30%, "daily_login": 15%, ... }

Pattern 2: Sink Audit

interface SinkEvent {
  player: PlayerId;
  amount: number;
  tag: 'repair' | 'fast_travel' | 'cosmetic' | 'tax' | 'destruction';
  timestamp: Date;
}

function sinkRatio(faucets: number, sinks: number): number {
  return sinks / faucets;  // target ≈ 1.0
}

// If ratio < 0.8 → inflation accelerating
// If ratio > 1.2 → deflation, frustration

Pattern 3: Inflation Index (CPI)

struct PriceBasket {
    items: Vec<(ItemId, f64)>,  // (item, weight)
}

impl PriceBasket {
    fn cpi_for(&self, market: &Market, baseline: &Snapshot) -> f64 {
        let current: f64 = self.items.iter()
            .map(|(id, w)| market.median_price(*id) * w)
            .sum();
        let base: f64 = self.items.iter()
            .map(|(id, w)| baseline.price(*id) * w)
            .sum();
        (current / base - 1.0) * 100.0  // % inflation
    }
}
// Healthy: -2% to +5% annual

Pattern 4: Gini Coefficient

def gini(wealths: list[float]) -> float:
    sorted_w = sorted(wealths)
    n = len(sorted_w)
    cum = sum((i + 1) * w for i, w in enumerate(sorted_w))
    total = sum(sorted_w)
    if total == 0: return 0.0
    return (2 * cum) / (n * total) - (n + 1) / n

# WoW server: ~0.85 typical (top 1% holds majority)
# EVE: ~0.92 (extreme concentration in null-sec entities)

Pattern 5: Velocity Tracking

public class VelocityTracker {
    public double DailyVelocity(DateOnly day) {
        var txVolume = TransactionsOn(day).Sum(t => t.Amount);
        var moneySupply = TotalCurrencyAt(day);  // sum of all balances
        return txVolume / moneySupply;
    }
    // High velocity (>1.0) — active economy
    // Low velocity (<0.1) — hoarding, stagnation
}

매 결정 기준

상황	Approach
매 inflation 매 detected	매 sink 강화 (매 cosmetic price 인상, 매 tax 추가)
매 deflation 매 detected	매 faucet 증가 또는 매 sink 완화
매 wealth 양극화	매 progressive tax, 매 wealth-gated event 회피
매 hoarding 매 detected	매 inactivity decay, 매 expiry mechanic
매 PvP 가 economic engine	매 destruction-on-loss (EVE 모델)

기본값: 매 monthly economic report (CPI, Gini, velocity) — 매 EVE QER 모델.

🔗 Graph

• 부모: Virtual-Economy-Design
• 응용: Hyperinflation-in-Closed-Loop-Systems

🤖 LLM 활용

언제: 매 monthly economy report 자동 생성, 매 anomaly detection (sudden CPI spike), 매 sink/faucet audit. 언제 X: 매 single-player game (매 economy 가 매 closed-loop 아님), 매 cosmetic-only economy.

❌ 안티패턴

• No sink: 매 currency 가 매 perpetually 누적 → 매 hyperinflation (Axie SLP).
• Hidden faucet: 매 dev 의 매 currency 발행이 매 measured 아님 → 매 surprise inflation.
• Static prices: 매 NPC vendor 가 매 fixed price → 매 inflation 시 매 무료에 가까워짐.
• No transparency: 매 player 가 매 economy 의 매 health 매 알 수 없음 → 매 trust 손실.
• Pay-to-print: 매 real money 가 매 in-game currency 매 발행 → 매 P2W + inflation.

🧪 검증 / 중복

• Verified (CCP QER 2007-2024, Lehdonvirta & Castronova "Virtual Economies", Axie Infinity 2022 audit).
• 신뢰도 A.

🕓 Changelog

날짜	변경
2026-05-08	Phase 1
2026-05-10	Manual cleanup — Game economy 의 source/sink/CPI/Gini/velocity 5-metric framework