--- id: wiki-2026-0508-startup title: Startup category: 10_Wiki/Topics status: verified canonical_id: self aliases: [Lean Startup, Startup Methodology, 스타트업] duplicate_of: none source_trust_level: A confidence_score: 0.9 verification_status: applied tags: [startup, lean, mvp, customer-development, ai-startup] raw_sources: [] last_reinforced: 2026-05-10 github_commit: pending tech_stack: language: english-korean framework: lean-startup --- # Startup ## 매 한 줄 > **"매 startup = search for repeatable + scalable business model"**. Steve Blank 의 customer development + Eric Ries 의 Lean Startup 이 base. 2026 AI wave 에선 매 1인 founder 가 Claude/Cursor 로 prototype → seed 까지 < 30 일 의 cycle. ## 매 핵심 ### 매 기본 정의 (Blank/Ries) - **Startup** ≠ 매 small business. 매 "search for repeatable, scalable, profitable business model" 하 temporary org. - **Customer Development** (Blank): Get-out-of-the-building, Customer Discovery → Validation → Creation → Building. - **Lean Startup** (Ries): Build–Measure–Learn loop, MVP, validated learning, pivot or persevere. ### 매 stages - **Pre-seed** ($100K~$2M): idea + founders. 2026 AI prototype demo 기본. - **Seed** ($1M~$5M): PMF 탐색. 매 design partner 5–10 개. - **Series A** ($5M~$25M): PMF 입증 + GTM scale. - **Series B+**: scale operations, geographic/category expansion. ### 매 PMF (Product-Market Fit) - Sean Ellis test: "How disappointed if product disappeared?" — 40%+ "very" → PMF signal. - Retention curve flat → PMF. Churning curve → 매 not yet. - Andreessen: "you can always feel PMF when it's happening." ### 매 2026 AI Startup wave - **Solo / 2-person AI startup**: Cursor/Claude Code 로 1 founder 가 full-stack ship. ARR $1M+ < 12 개월 사례 다수. - **Vertical AI agents**: 법률 (Harvey), 회계 (Pilot+AI), 의료 scribe (Abridge), 영업 (11x.ai). - **Foundation model wrapper risk**: GPT-5 / Claude Opus 4.7 / Gemini 3 가 직접 feature 흡수. Moat = data/distribution/workflow integration. - **AI-native pricing**: per-task, per-outcome (success-based), per-agent-seat. 매 traditional per-seat SaaS 의 위협. ## 💻 패턴 ### MVP 가설 worksheet (Lean Canvas style) ```markdown ## Problem (top 3) 1. ... ## Customer Segments - Early adopter: ... - Mainstream: ... ## Unique Value Prop " for who " ## Solution (top 3 features) 1. ... ## Channels - ... ## Revenue Streams - ... ## Cost Structure - ... ## Key Metrics (AARRR) - Acquisition / Activation / Retention / Referral / Revenue ## Unfair Advantage - ... ``` ### Customer interview template ```markdown # Discovery Interview (30 min) ## Warm-up - Tell me about your role + day-to-day. ## Problem (no pitching!) - Walk me through last time you . - What was hardest part? Why? - What did you do to solve it? (existing workarounds) - How much time/money does cost? ## Solution probe (only after problem confirmed) - If a tool did , how would you use it? - Who else needs to be involved in buying decision? ## Close - Who else should I talk to? - Can I follow up in 2 weeks? ``` ### MVP build (2026 AI startup stack) ```bash # Day 0–3: validate pain via 10 interviews # Day 4–10: prototype with Claude Code + v0 + Supabase pnpm create next-app@latest mvp --typescript --tailwind --app cd mvp pnpm add @supabase/ssr ai @ai-sdk/anthropic # Day 11–14: 5 design partner deploy via Vercel vercel deploy --prod # Day 15+: weekly Build–Measure–Learn cycle ``` ### Build–Measure–Learn loop ```typescript // 매 weekly cycle 의 instrumentation import { track } from "@vercel/analytics"; export async function onUserAction(action: string, props: object) { await track(action, props); // PostHog/Mixpanel/Amplitude } // Measure: cohort retention, activation funnel // Learn: 매 weekly 5-customer call → hypothesis update // Build: 매 1 hypothesis test per sprint ``` ### PMF metric dashboard (PostHog SQL) ```sql -- Sean Ellis-style retention cohort SELECT date_trunc('week', signup_at) AS cohort, COUNT(DISTINCT user_id) FILTER (WHERE active_in_week_4) * 1.0 / COUNT(DISTINCT user_id) AS w4_retention FROM users GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1 DESC; -- 매 30%+ flat W4 retention = PMF candidate ``` ### Pivot decision matrix ```python # 매 "pivot or persevere" — Ries def pivot_signal(metrics): # No traction after 3 build-measure-learn cycles? if metrics.weekly_active_growth < 0.05 and metrics.cycles >= 3: return "PIVOT" if metrics.retention_w4 > 0.30 and metrics.organic_share > 0.20: return "PERSEVERE / SCALE" return "CONTINUE LEARNING" ``` ### Fundraising data room essentials (2026) ```markdown ## Seed Data Room - Pitch deck (10-12 slides, Sequoia/YC format) - 매 financial model (3-year, monthly first 12mo) - KPI dashboard (live link to Mixpanel/PostHog) - Customer letters / testimonials (5+) - Cap table (Carta export) - 매 incorporation docs (Delaware C-Corp) - IP assignment, founder agreements - AI compliance: 매 SOC2 Type 1 progress, EU AI Act risk class ``` ## 매 결정 기준 | 상황 | Approach | |---|---| | 매 Idea 단계 | Customer Discovery 만, 매 build 전 10+ interview | | Prototype 후 traction X | Lean iteration, 매 pivot 고려 | | 매 Seed 단계, design partner 확보 | Validation: contract / LOI 5+ | | Series A 준비 | Repeatable sales motion 입증 (CAC payback < 18mo) | | AI wrapper 우려 | Workflow integration + proprietary data moat 의 강화 | **기본값**: 매 Lean Startup + Customer Development 결합 — 매 Build–Measure–Learn weekly cadence. ## 🔗 Graph - 부모: [[Business-Strategy]] - 변형: [[Lean-Startup]] - 응용: [[MVP]] ## 🤖 LLM 활용 **언제**: 매 idea validation, customer interview synthesis, pitch deck draft, KPI dashboard SQL 작성, market sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM). **언제 X**: 매 hard customer signal 의 대체 X — 매 LLM 가 진짜 customer pain 의 hallucinate 가능. 매 actual interviews irreplaceable. ## ❌ 안티패턴 - **Build first, validate later**: 매 6개월 build → 매 nobody wants. Customer dev 가 먼저. - **Vanity metrics**: signup count, page view 만 추적 — 매 retention/revenue 의 무시. - **매 founder–market mismatch**: domain 의 unfamiliar — design partner 의 trust 약화. - **AI wrapper without moat**: GPT-5 / Claude API call only → foundation model 이 흡수 시 사라짐. - **Premature scaling** (Marmer): PMF 전 매 sales team 의 hire — 매 burn rate 폭주. ## 🧪 검증 / 중복 - Verified (Steve Blank "Four Steps to the Epiphany", Eric Ries "Lean Startup", YC startup library 2026). - 신뢰도 A. ## 🕓 Changelog | 날짜 | 변경 | |---|---| | 2026-05-08 | Phase 1 | | 2026-05-10 | Manual cleanup — Lean/Customer Dev + 2026 AI startup wave 정리 |