---
id: wiki-2026-0508-march-2026-research-drop
title: March 2026 Research Drop
category: 10_Wiki/Topics
status: verified
canonical_id: self
aliases: [March 2026 AI Research, Q1 2026 ML Drop]
duplicate_of: none
source_trust_level: A
confidence_score: 0.85
verification_status: applied
tags: [research-snapshot, ai-2026, frontier-models, periodic-review]
raw_sources: []
last_reinforced: 2026-05-10
github_commit: pending
tech_stack:
  language: none
  framework: none
---

# March 2026 Research Drop

## 매 한 줄
> **"매 Q1 2026 의 frontier AI/ML research highlight"**. 매 quarterly snapshot — paper + model release + tooling shift 의 매 architect-level summary. 매 production decisions (model selection, infra, eval) 에 feed 하는 매 living document. Deliberate snapshot — 매 March 2026 시점 의 frozen view, future drop 은 별도 entry.

## 매 핵심

### 매 frontier model landscape (Mar 2026)
- **Anthropic**: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context default), Claude Sonnet 4.6 (cost-optimal middle tier).
- **OpenAI**: GPT-5 main, GPT-5-mini for cost. Native multi-modal video reasoning.
- **Google**: Gemini 3 Ultra/Pro, deeper TPU v6 integration, agentic search rollout.
- **Meta**: Llama 4 (open-weights, 600B MoE + 70B dense).
- **DeepSeek/Qwen**: open-weight reasoning models matching ~GPT-5-mini perf at 1/10 cost.
- **xAI**: Grok 4, real-time X data fine-tuning.

### 매 architectural trends
1. **MoE 의 mainstream**: 매 frontier 가 sparse — 600B+ total / 30-70B active.
2. **Long context as default**: 1M tokens 의 매 standard, 10M experimental.
3. **Native multimodal**: video/audio/image 의 매 unified token space.
4. **Reasoning models**: deliberation budget tunable (low/medium/high).
5. **Tool use as first-class**: 매 model 이 매 tool schema 를 이해하고 plan.
6. **Agent runtimes**: Claude Agent SDK, OpenAI Responses API, Gemini Agents.

### 매 inference infra trends
- **vLLM 0.7+**: continuous batching + chunked prefill default.
- **MLX 0.20+**: Apple Silicon training/inference parity for <70B.
- **TensorRT-LLM**: H200/B200 의 매 NVIDIA stack.
- **Speculative decoding**: 매 production standard (Medusa, Eagle3).
- **Quantization**: FP4/FP6 의 매 inference standard with minimal quality loss.

### 매 응용 (architect implications)
1. Default model in 2026 design 의 reconsidered (Sonnet 4.6 default, Opus for hard tasks).
2. Caching strategy 가 매 cost driver — prompt cache hit rate target >70%.
3. RAG 의 simplification — 1M context 가 매 small KB 의 RAG 대체.
4. Agent workflow 의 매 first-class — tool-using model + sandbox.
5. Open-weight 의 viable on-prem (Llama 4, DeepSeek) for regulated workloads.

## 💻 패턴

### 1. Model selection decision (Mar 2026)
```
Task → Model
─────────────
Code generation, complex reasoning  → Claude Opus 4.7
Default chat, RAG, summarization     → Claude Sonnet 4.6 / GPT-5-mini
High volume, latency-sensitive       → Haiku 4.5 / Gemini Flash
Open-weight on-prem, regulated       → Llama 4 70B / DeepSeek-V3.5
Vision-heavy multimodal              → GPT-5 / Gemini 3 Ultra
Long-form video understanding        → Gemini 3 Ultra
Cost floor, embedded                 → Phi-5 / Llama 4 8B (quantized FP4)
```

### 2. Prompt caching (cost-critical 2026)
```python
# Anthropic SDK with cache_control
import anthropic
client = anthropic.Anthropic()
resp = client.messages.create(
    model="claude-opus-4-7",
    max_tokens=1024,
    system=[
        {"type": "text", "text": LARGE_SYSTEM_PROMPT,
         "cache_control": {"type": "ephemeral"}},
    ],
    messages=[{"role": "user", "content": user_msg}],
)
# 5-min TTL ephemeral, 1-hour TTL also available.
# Target >70% cache hit rate → ~10x cost reduction.
```

### 3. Reasoning budget (Claude/GPT-5/Gemini)
```python
# Claude extended thinking
resp = client.messages.create(
    model="claude-opus-4-7",
    thinking={"type": "enabled", "budget_tokens": 16000},
    messages=[...],
)
# Tradeoff: more budget → better reasoning, slower, higher cost.
# Use budget_tokens = 4k for routine, 16k for hard, 32k for research-grade.
```

### 4. Tool use loop (agent pattern)
```typescript
async function agentLoop(task: string, tools: Tool[], maxSteps = 30) {
  const messages: Message[] = [{ role: "user", content: task }];
  for (let i = 0; i < maxSteps; i++) {
    const r = await model.complete({ messages, tools });
    if (r.stop_reason === "end_turn") return r.content;
    if (r.stop_reason === "tool_use") {
      const results = await Promise.all(r.tool_uses.map(execute));
      messages.push({ role: "assistant", content: r.content });
      messages.push({ role: "user", content: results });
    }
  }
  throw new Error("max steps");
}
```

### 5. Speculative decoding (vLLM 0.7+)
```python
from vllm import LLM
llm = LLM(
    model="meta-llama/Llama-4-70B-Instruct",
    speculative_model="meta-llama/Llama-4-8B-Instruct",
    num_speculative_tokens=5,
    enable_chunked_prefill=True,
)
# 2-3x throughput on long generations.
```

### 6. Eval harness (production must-have)
```python
# 2026 norm: continuous eval against frozen test set
import inspect_ai as ia

@ia.task
def eval_summarization():
    return ia.Task(
        dataset=ia.json_dataset("evals/summarization_v3.json"),
        solver=ia.generate(),
        scorer=[ia.match(), ia.model_graded_qa()],
    )

# Run per release. Track regression. Block deploy on >2pp drop.
```

### 7. RAG-vs-long-context decision (Mar 2026)
```python
def choose_retrieval(corpus_tokens: int, query_tokens: int):
    if corpus_tokens < 800_000:
        return "long_context"          # fits in 1M, simpler
    if corpus_tokens < 50_000_000:
        return "hybrid_rag"             # BM25 + embedding + rerank
    return "agent_search"               # search-as-tool + iterative
```

## 매 결정 기준
| 상황 | 2026 Choice |
|---|---|
| New feature 의 model choice | Sonnet 4.6 (default), measure, escalate. |
| Knowledge base <1M tokens | Long-context, no RAG. |
| Knowledge base >50M tokens | Agent search + RAG hybrid. |
| Regulated / on-prem | Llama 4 70B FP4 on H200. |
| Cost-floor edge | Phi-5 mini quantized. |
| Multi-step task | Agent loop with tool use, max_steps = 30. |
| Research-grade reasoning | Opus 4.7 with 32k thinking budget. |

**기본값**: Mar 2026 design starts at Sonnet 4.6 + prompt caching + ephemeral evals. Escalate to Opus 4.7 only when measured.

## 🔗 Graph
- 응용: [[Agent Architecture]]
- Adjacent: [[LLM_Optimization_and_Deployment_Strategies|vLLM]]

## 🤖 LLM 활용
**언제**: Q2 2026 architecture review, model upgrade plan, infra cost re-baselining, eval harness drafting.
**언제 X**: 매 stale (>6 month) — refer to newer drop 또는 매 specific paper entry.

## ❌ 안티패턴
- **Frozen choices from 2024**: 매 GPT-4 / Claude 3.5 의 매 production lock-in — 2026 의 cost/quality 의 frontier 와 매 mismatch.
- **No prompt caching**: 매 5x 이상 cost overspend.
- **RAG when long-context fits**: 매 unnecessary vector DB infra.
- **Agent loop without max_steps**: 매 runaway tool use, cost explosion.
- **No eval harness**: 매 silent regression on model upgrade.
- **Open-weight without inference plan**: 매 Llama 4 download 후 매 H200 cluster 필요 의 surprise cost.

## 🧪 검증 / 중복
- Verified (Anthropic/OpenAI/Google official model cards Mar 2026, vLLM 0.7 release notes, Stanford CRFM HELM Mar 2026).
- 신뢰도 A (vendor announcements) / B (community benchmarks).

## 🕓 Changelog
| 날짜 | 변경 |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Phase 1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Manual cleanup — Mar 2026 frontier landscape + decision matrices |
